I'll Take the Over on COVID

When somebody bets on sports and takes the "over", they want the two teams to score more goals or points than whatever oddsmakers set the line at. 

We all have different opinions on what "normal" looks like, or in other words, how long it will be before we return to pre-pandemic conditions. When we can go to sports in arenas and stadiums, shake hands, hug people and travel like we did before.

I've given this some thought and although no oddsmaker has established a date or a "line" for this, I'll take the over on when we get back to normal because I think we have another two years to go.

When Will it Be Normal Again?

I remember a week or so after the pandemic had been declared in March telling one of my daughters that things “Won’t get back to normal until around my birthday”. My birthday was on August 2^nd.

Strike one.

Several weeks into the pandemic, I thought things would start returning to normal in the fall. Kids would be back at school, people would return to working in their offices and we would begin to mingle again.

Strike two.

Six months into the pandemic I’m thinking differently. I don’t expect things to get back to normal until around this time in 2022. I’m serious.

Of course, things will never really be “normal.” Those days are gone. We’ve learned to do many things virtually, or at least differently and in many cases it works and in some, we actually like it better.

My work is an example. I did a virtual media training workshop last week and the client gave it very positive reviews. We originally planned to do the training in-person, but then the COVID numbers in Alberta shot up this summer, so we decided to play it safe and do it virtually and I’m glad we did. I have another virtual media training workshop this week and clients contacting me for media training for the fall, are requesting the virtual option.

This isn’t a fad and I anticipate doing more virtual training workshops than in-person sessions in 2021. That’s fine by me. I keep adding equipment to my setup to make the customer experience better and deliver a far better virtual experience than I did a few months ago.

It’s nice to walk across the hallway from my bedroom into my video studio in the morning, instead of having to drive for three hours, or fly for an hour and a half to deliver a workshop.

The New Normal

Enough about me. The question becomes when will we reach the “new normal”? I describe this time as when we’ll start mixing with people again like we did before, shaking hands, going to sports, attending conferences and sitting next to one another in theatres?

We may be doing things differently, such as attending meetings by video instead of traveling, or taking training by video instead of being there in person, but those would be choices we make.

We would also have the choice of mixing with people like we did before March 11. When will that start to happen?

I think the biggest sign that life is finally back to normal is when we start attending large conferences again. Think about what you do when you go to an event like that. You may fly to get there. You spend a few days in a hotel. You have breakfast, lunch and dinner with many people you don’t know. You sit elbow to elbow with people listening to presentations, you mingle, shake hands, hug and speak loudly as you stand close to others to be heard over the noise of 300 people packed into a narrow hotel hallway during a break.

Remember those days? When will they return?

September 1, 2022

Not that I want to for a second believe what President Trump said last week during his RNC speech when he said there will be a vaccine before the end of the year, but let’s say we do get a vaccine by the end of 2020.

I’ve come to realize that we won’t reach the new normal until well after a vaccine is developed. Let’s say we do have a vaccine around the end of the year, or the start of 2021. It will take several months for those who want the vaccine to get it. Of course, there will be a sizeable number of people who will refuse to get it, touching off what could be the news story of 2021 – Should people be forced to get the vaccine?

Let’s say in a year from now most people who would get the vaccine have taken it. But there will be others who won’t and will continue to spread the virus, especially after things start opening up even more.

Then we’ll need a period of time where we feel safe to go to live sports again, concerts and movies, before we can start to schedule conferences, conventions and meetings without the fear of having to cancel them, like we did this year.

That’s why I believe, we aren’t looking at things returning to whatever normal will look like then until well into 2022. And that’s IF we get a vaccine around the end of this year, which is now only four months away. If it comes six months later, then push my date back. What happens if there’s a problem with the vaccine that causes unexpected side effects? Maybe it will take another three years to return to normal?

People seem to think this is a 2020 thing. We’ll flip the calendar to 2021 and things will be fine. They won’t be. 2021 will be another difficult year. Maybe 2022 will be too.

If I had to pick a date for us to reach the new normal and start to go to large gatherings again it would be September 1, 2022.

That’s why I’m taking the over on the pandemic.

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